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• Nov. 1, 2006 - The Truth About Home Prices,

The Truth About Home Prices

Home prices have come down. The 1.7 percent national price decline in August (from a year ago) was the first price decline since April 1995 when prices declined 0.1 percent for one short month. Prices also declined previously to that in both 1992 and 1993, but again for only a single month. The only sustained price decline was a mere two straight months in 1990. There have been no other nationwide price declines since NAR began tracking the data in 1968.

But as I’ve said before – and of more importance to home buyers, sellers and their real estate professionals – all real estate is local. Locally, prices in some Florida markets are currently down by more than 10 percent. Prices in some counties in the D.C. region have also declined close to 10 percent. Over longer periods of time, some local markets have posted very prolonged price declines. Two examples are Los Angeles and Houston.

In Los Angeles, prices declined from $224,600 in the second quarter of 1991 to $167,100 in the fourth quarter of 1996. Los Angeles prices returned to their peak only in 2000. The catalyst for the decline was major job cuts – particularly in industries affected by cutbacks in federal defense spending after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent disintegration of the Soviet Union. From peak (1989) to trough (1994) a total of 633,600 jobs were lost in the region.

The Houston housing market also crumbled under the weight of heavy job losses in the 1980s, the result of the oil price collapse and the savings and loan scandal). Home prices in the Houston area fell from $83,700 in the third quarter of 1985 to $56,800 in the fourth quarter of 1988. The $26,900 decline (which now does not sound that large) corresponds to a 32 percent price correction.

It's Not About Jobs
But the current weakening in home prices is not due to any major job cuts that force people to sell their homes at any price. In fact, job creation has been quite robust in those markets currently experiencing price declines (aside from Detroit). Florida added 243,300 net new jobs in the past 12 months. The D.C. region has been consistently adding about 70,000 net new jobs over the 12-month time span for the past three years – essentially a stadium full of people with new jobs every year (and causing similar stadium-related
traffic jams).

Only prolonged job losses, subsequent forced home sales and rising foreclosures will lead to sustained home price declines. So what’s going on with the price declines? It’s the fact that the artificially high demand for home buying has dissipated. What I mean by “artificial” is those buyers who were looking to net quick bucks from flipping properties. At the same time, with prices falling these non-owner occupied homes are being put on the market. That, in turn, artificially elevates housing inventory levels. Higher inventory (more supply) lessens pressure on prices. Hence, prices fall even as the job market continues to steamroll. It will take several months for inventory to ease back down to more manageable, balanced levels. When that happens, home prices will quickly reenter positive territory.

Some have a hard time accepting this common sense logic. UCLA’s Anderson School predicted prices to fall 30 percent in Las Vegas. That was in 2002. (In fact, home prices in Vegas rose from $160,000 in 2002 to $319,000 currently.) Moody’s Economy.com has been getting a lot of headlines recently about its home price forecasts. They call for nation-wide price declines of 3.5 percent and much more significant declines in some local markets: Las Vegas to correct by 13 percent with no price pickup until 2009, and Cape Coral, Florida to fall by 19 percent.

Our forecast is for prices to begin increasing in both of these markets from mid-2007 if not sooner. I am particularly bullish on the Salt Lake City market, which could experience double-digit price appreciation in 2006 and 2007. (Moody’s Economy.com forecast is for a price decline in Salt Lake City. I’ll revisit this in 2007 to see who came closer to reality.)

Brighter Days Ahead
As for the national picture, the elevated inventory will be worked off over the next two quarters. Wages are rising at better than 4 percent and jobs continue to be created – not robustly – but nonetheless respectably with 1.7 million net new payroll jobs in the past 12 months. With home prices falling, the demand will inevitably pick up. The low point will be the fourth quarter of this year. Sales will then steadily climb and with it will come strengthening home prices. In summary, the housing slump is nearly over.

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• Oct. 23, 2006 - Selling Your Home in a Cooling Market

COMENTS OR OPINIONS ARE APPRECIATED.

IF YOU'RE THINKING OF selling your home, chances are all the headlines warning of the real estate bubble bursting have you feeling a little anxious.

Already, the buying frenzy has slowed substantially in places like New York City, Miami, Washington, D.C., Las Vegas and San Diego — areas that reported very slow price growth in the fourth quarter of 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). At the national level, the real-estate market has slowed down significantly compared with the frantic 2004 and 2005.

The NAR expects that as mortgage rates rise this year, home sales will drop: about 400,000 fewer people will buy homes this year compared to 2005, according to NAR spokesman Walter Molony. Already, the real-estate market is returning to what the trade group calls a balanced market between buyers and sellers. "What's happening now is with buyers being on more equal footing with sellers, they don't feel like they need to make snap decisions," says Molony. "They don't have to bid over the asking price, they can take the time to do the due diligence."

So if you plan to sell your home in the near future, call a handyman to make sure everything is in working order. Then take a close look at your local real-estate market and find out what's selling, what's not and why. Finally, don't expect to get more for your house than your neighbor got a year ago. This is a different market, warns Nelson Zide, co-owner of ERA Key Realty Services in Framingham, Mass. Look at more recent sales data and price your home accordingly.

Here are some more tips to help you get top dollar for your house.

Price, Price, Price
Selling a house is all about price. Ask too much, and you could get stuck with a home that languishes on the market. The longer it sits, the harder it is to unload. "The first question a buyer asks is how long the house has been on the market," says Pamela Liebman, chief executive of New York-based real-estate firm the Corcoran Group. "If it's been on a while, they ask what is wrong with the house."

Ironically, homeowners who ask more for their homes tend to get less in the end. According to Liebman, studies show that if you price your home properly it will sell faster and at a higher price than if the home was priced aggressively. "Overpricing leads to low bids," Liebman says. "Proper pricing leads to high bids."

So how do you set the right price? First, take a look at recent sales in your neighborhood. And don't forget to factor in the condition of your house. A home buyer in a more neutral market is still going to pay up for a new kitchen with Poggenpohl cabinets and a Sub-Zero Refrigerator. But if you failed to notice that Harvest Gold stoves and countertops went out of style with bell bottoms and love beads, you had better be prepared to drop your price by about as much as it would cost a new owner to renovate your relic.

Curb Appeal
First impressions are everything. The last thing you want is to turn off a potential buyer before he or she walks in the door. So make sure the house is painted, and call a landscaper to get your lawn in tip top shape. "If your grass isn't green, make it green," Liebman says. "If you have weeds, get rid of them. If the shrubs are overgrown, cut them." Even small, inexpensive potted flowers can make your home seem more inviting.

Renovations
Some renovations are worth an investment. An extra bathroom makes a home more saleable, says Jim Cory, senior editor at Remodeling Magazine. A few cans of paint and new carpeting could also provide a handsome return. An outdated eight-room home in South Philadelphia, for example, might go for roughly $130,000, says Cory. Pull the shag carpeting and wood paneling — a project that costs roughly $15,000 — and that same home could list for $180,000.

Fix Everything
Make sure everything works. Have an inspector assess everything from your water heater and furnace to your central air conditioning system. "If there are any doubts about the mechanical functions, a buyer will walk," Remodeling Magazine's Cory says.

Even minor repairs are crucial. Hire a contractor to go through your home with a fine-toothed comb. Make sure the gutters are cleaned and the tub has new grout and caulk in the joints. Every window must slide open, and kitchen cabinets should open with ease. And don't forget to paint over ugly water stains. If you don't, a potential buyer could see it as a warning sign of a larger issue.

If you're inclined to leave your home as is, prepare to drop your asking price. "I hate to say it, but price cures everything," says Era Key Realty's Zide. Historically, buyers negotiate two dollars for every dollar of reported deficiencies, according to home-inspection company HouseMaster.

Additional Tips
There's some basic advice that's worth repeating. Keep your home as clean and as pristine as possible. This means cleaning out your closets and getting rid of excess clutter and furniture. You want your home to look as spacious as possible. The Corcoran Group's Liebman even suggests fresh flowers. "Baking cookies could be a bit silly and obvious," she says.

How long will all this take? Give yourself a good six months. It takes time to plan, and then to coordinate projects with a contractor or handyman. Just know that the hassle will be worth it. With a little hard work, you can get the best price for your home in any market.

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• Oct. 23, 2006 - FREE LISTING SEARCH FROM HOUSE VALUES

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• Oct. 23, 2006 - Greenspan: Housing market worst may be over

WASHINGTON - The U.S. housing market appears to be emerging from its recent travails and the “worst may well be over,” former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying on Friday.

“I suspect that we are coming to the end of this downtrend, as applications for new mortgages, the most important series, have flattened out,” Greenspan said at an event in Calgary, Canada, sponsored by BMO Financial Group, according to a transcript BMO made available.

“There is a good chance of coming out of this in good shape, but average housing prices are likely to be down this year relative to 2005. I don’t know, but I think the worst of this may well be over,” he added.

Applications for U.S. home mortgages jumped in the latest week bolstered by increases in refinancing and new home purchases as long-term rates decreased, according to data from the Mortgage Bond Association.

Greenspan, the former Fed chief’s comments suggest a more sanguine view of the U.S. housing market than that offered by current Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, who said last week that the housing market was currently undergoing a “substantial correction.”

Some bond market participants in London said on Monday that Greenspan’s remarks helped drive bond prices down further and yields higher, and obscured concerns surrounding the news that North Korea said it safely and successfully conducted an underground nuclear test over the weekend.

U.S. bond markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday.

Greenspan said the fall of communism, not sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed, was behind the housing boom in the early part of the decade. Cheap labor flooding into the West after the fall of the Berlin Wall had a disinflationary effect, causing bond yields to fall and house values to rise, he said.

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